In the 2024 US election, a mysterious gambler known as “Trump Whale” made a huge profit of $50 million by betting on Donald Trump’s victory. This wealthy Frenchman, who goes by the name “Théo,” used a unique method to predict Trump’s win. By creating his own polls, he was able to place incredibly accurate bets on the outcome of the election, making him one of the most successful gamblers of the year.
How Did “Trump Whale” Make His Predictions?
“Trump Whale” used a method called the “neighbour method” to predict the election results. This technique involved asking people about how they thought their neighbors would vote, rather than directly asking them who they were voting for. This was important because many Trump supporters didn’t want to answer traditional polls truthfully due to fear of backlash or embarrassment. By using this approach, Théo was able to get a more accurate understanding of the real level of support for Trump.
The “Neighbour Method” and Its Accuracy
The “neighbour method” helped Théo spot something that traditional polls missed: the so-called “shy Trump voter effect.” This refers to people who support Trump but avoid expressing it in public or through official polls. By using data from multiple polls and even conducting his own surveys, Théo found that many more people were supporting Trump than most polls suggested. He used this insight to place his bets, predicting Trump’s victory in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Théo’s Big Bets
Théo placed his bets on a platform called Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform. He bet large amounts of money on Trump’s victory in several important states and predicted that Trump would win not only the battleground states but also the popular vote. His bets paid off when Trump won, and Théo walked away with a huge profit of nearly $50 million.
Théo made it clear that his bets were not motivated by politics but by his belief that mainstream polls were wrong. He said he placed his own money at risk because he trusted his data-driven predictions over the political opinions of pollsters.
The Aftermath: The Financial Impact of Trump’s Win
Trump’s victory caused a major shift in the financial markets. The stock market hit a record high, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin soared. The US dollar also gained strength. Trump’s economic policies, which include tax cuts and raising import tariffs, are likely to influence the economy for years to come. His win led to a confident outlook on Wall Street, with many seeing the outcome as a signal for a strong economic future.
Kamala Harris Concedes Defeat
On the day after Trump’s win, Vice President Kamala Harris officially conceded the election. In an emotional speech, she acknowledged the defeat and called for unity, urging Americans to accept the results and continue fighting for their beliefs through the voting process and the courts.
The “Trump Whale” gambler, who took a data-driven approach to predicting the election results, made millions by betting on Trump’s victory. His use of the “neighbour method” provided insights that traditional polls missed, allowing him to make highly accurate predictions. His big win reflects how the right data analysis can lead to profitable outcomes, even in unpredictable events like elections.
FAQs
1. What is the “Trump Whale” bet?
The “Trump Whale” bet refers to the large wagers placed by a mysterious gambler named Théo, who predicted Trump’s win using his own polling method.
2. How did “Trump Whale” predict Trump’s victory?
Théo used the “neighbour method,” which asked people how they thought their neighbors would vote, to uncover more accurate data about Trump’s support.
3. Why did Théo’s predictions differ from mainstream polls?
Théo’s predictions were based on the “shy Trump voter effect,” which showed that many Trump supporters didn’t express their views openly in traditional polls.
4. What platform did “Trump Whale” use for his bets?
Théo placed his bets on Polymarket, a crypto-based platform that allows people to bet on political outcomes.
5. How did Trump’s win impact the stock market?
Trump’s victory led to a surge in the stock market, with Wall Street hitting record highs and Bitcoin rising in value.
