The 2024 U.S. presidential election brought unexpected results, with internal Democratic polling suggesting President Joe Biden would have faced a major defeat against Donald Trump. This information, revealed on a podcast by Jon Favreau, a former Obama speechwriter, highlights the challenges Biden and his team encountered.
Let’s explore how this scenario unfolded and why it was such a pivotal moment in U.S. politics.
Biden’s Unpopular Run and Polling Warnings
Biden’s decision to run for re-election was widely criticized as a mistake. Despite internal polling showing alarming trends, his campaign team continued to promote him as the strongest candidate. The data suggested Trump was likely to win by a significant margin, securing as many as 400 electoral votes. This would have turned traditionally Democratic states like Oregon, New Jersey, and even Biden’s home state, Delaware, into Republican victories.
For context, the last time Delaware voted Republican was in 1988, during George H.W. Bush’s landslide win. Losing Delaware would have been a historical setback for Biden, given his long association with the state.
Economic Concerns and Voter Dissatisfaction
One major reason for Biden’s struggles was growing voter dissatisfaction with economic issues like inflation. Favreau noted that Biden’s team underestimated public frustration, which hurt his approval ratings. Critics also pointed out Biden’s reluctance to acknowledge these issues, which led to declining support even in traditionally Democratic strongholds.
Trump’s projected success in the election wasn’t just limited to swing states. His popularity extended into regions that had remained reliably blue for decades.
Impact on Vice President Harris’s Campaign
When Biden eventually dropped out in July 2024, it left little time for Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign effectively. Without a proper primary to introduce a stronger Democratic candidate, Harris was thrust into the spotlight with limited preparation. This weakened the party’s overall strategy, contributing to Trump’s sweeping victory.
Biden’s Withdrawal from the Race
Biden’s withdrawal followed a series of missteps, including a poorly received debate performance against Trump in June 2024. This event, described as a “meltdown,” fueled further doubts about his ability to lead. In his resignation announcement, Biden cited his desire to focus on fulfilling his presidential duties for the remainder of his term.
Despite stepping down, Biden continued to face criticism for campaign blunders, such as referring to Trump supporters as “garbage,” which further alienated voters.
Trump’s Historic Win
By election day, Trump’s victory was clear. He not only won the electoral college but also claimed the popular vote—a rare feat for Republicans in recent decades. His success reflected widespread dissatisfaction with the Democratic leadership and a shift in political dynamics across the U.S.
Biden congratulated Trump and promised a smooth transition of power, praising Kamala Harris for her efforts during the campaign.
FAQs
- Why did Biden face such a significant loss?
Biden’s unpopularity, economic concerns like inflation, and his team’s refusal to address voter dissatisfaction contributed to the loss. - How did Trump manage to win so many states?
Trump’s campaign capitalized on economic frustrations and expanded his appeal in traditionally Democratic states. - What role did Kamala Harris play in the election?
Harris took over the Democratic campaign after Biden’s withdrawal but faced challenges due to limited time for preparation. - What states flipped to Trump in 2024?
Trump turned traditionally blue states like Oregon, New Jersey, Maine, and even Biden’s home state, Delaware, red. - What does this mean for the Democratic Party?
The party is expected to analyze its strategy and address internal weaknesses to recover from this historic defeat.
