According to its most recent statistical model, the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates that the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 will be 2.2%. At the same time, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will implement a strict policy to recover overpayments beginning March 27.
According to TSCL’s modeling, the COLA in 2026 will be 2.2% based on current economic data. This follows a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) fell to 2.7% in February, from 3.0% in January. The projected adjustment exceeds the 2025 COLA by 0.3 percentage points, totaling 2.5%.
Yes, the Social Security payments will increase… but, how much?
According to TSCL, using CPI-W data from the last three months would result in a COLA of 2.8% in 2026. However, this figure is 1.1 percentage points lower than the average for the 2020s, which was 3.9%. These numbers reflect inflationary trends that affect beneficiaries’ purchasing power.
The Trump administration has proposed a new way for the SSA to recoup overpayments of benefits. Starting March 27, beneficiaries who received additional funds in error will have 100% of their future benefits withheld until the debt is repaid, reversing a previous rule that limited the deduction to the greater of 10% or $10.
According to its financial reports, the SSA collected an average of $4.2 billion in overpayments per year from 2017 to 2023, while maintaining an outstanding balance of $22.8 billion. The new policy will only apply to overpayments made after the start date, increasing recovery efforts.
The impact of the Social Security increments for retirees
According to a TSCL analysis, if the government recovered the entire balance of overpayments in a typical year, it could issue beneficiaries a check for approximately $495. Furthermore, if the recovered funds were reinvested as dividends, benefits would increase by an average of $77 per year, according to the organization’s calculations.
Beneficiaries currently have 30 days after receiving notification of an overpayment to return the money before the hold begins. The Social Security Overpayment Act, which was not passed by the previous Congress, proposed extending this period to 120 days, a measure TSCL believes is necessary to alleviate the financial burden.
Shannon Benton, president and CEO of TSCL, commented, “While the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) believes that overpayments of Social Security benefits should be restored, we believe it is important that recipients not face undue pressure for an immediate 100 percent reduction in benefits.” TSCL asked for an extension of the recovery period.
The full recovery of benefits can have a significant impact on those who rely solely on these funds. Many beneficiaries may fail to detect overpayments in time, resulting in sudden income cuts. TSCL has urged Congress to reconsider measures like the Overpayment Law to ensure greater fairness.
