If their win over Liverpool earlier this season went unnoticed in the midst of the Reds’ title run, Nottingham Forest will look to shock the Premier League community this time around when they face off in a Tuesday spotlight matchup.
Arne Slot’s team leads the Premier League table by six points and has a game in hand, keeping a stranglehold on the title race.
However, the lead is insufficient to allow them to rest comfortably in the second half of the season. A win here would not only increase Forest’s chances of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League, but it would also reopen the title race.
The Reds have looked gettable recently, drawing with Manchester United in league play a week ago before losing to Tottenham in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semifinal on Wednesday.
A slip by the leaders here would give Forest even more reason to believe they can not only compete for the top four, but also make an unprecedented push for silverware.
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prediction, odds
If anyone doubts Forest’s viability as a top-four contender, they are probably in the minority. Nuno Espirito Santo has prepared this team for success, and they are carrying out his defensive strategy, while the forwards do a lot with little volume.
Despite producing clockwork-like results against lower-half opponents, they have yet to consistently take points off top teams — they beat Liverpool early in the season but have lost to Newcastle United, Arsenal, and Manchester City (plus chaos-mongers Fulham).
Liverpool, meanwhile, is showing a few signs that they are losing steam. Mohamed Salah can only carry the team so far, and the Reds need their supporting players to step up more consistently.
A low-scoring draw, whether 0-0 or 1-1, is a high-probability result that would satisfy everyone. Forest earns a point against a top opponent, keeping them in contention for the top four, while Liverpool keeps a team near the top at arm’s length, knowing they still have a solid lead and a game in hand on the rest of the field.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Nott. Forest win | +400 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Liverpool win | -160 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -150 N: +105 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -160 U: +115 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.5 goals |
+120 |
| Liverpool +0.5 goals |
-175 |
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool match facts
- Date: Tuesday, January 14, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: City Ground (Nottinghamshire, England)
- Referee: Chris Kavanaugh, VAR: John Brooks.
- Last meeting: Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sep. 14, 2024 | Premier League)
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +115 (BetMGM)
There are several factors at play here that could lead to a stalemate at the City Ground on Tuesday.
First, Nottingham Forest’s defense has been exceptional this season. While Arsenal’s statistically dominant back line continues to falter at the worst possible times, Forest remain steadfast at the back.
They have the third-best expected goals allowed in the Premier League (behind Liverpool and Arsenal), as well as the top half’s third-best differential, indicating that they have been both good and lucky — a winning combination.
Liverpool’s finishing has been particularly poor of late. While this is likely to cause a course correction in the future, it may take some time, as these things frequently result in short-term trends.
Liverpool scored two goals on 2.86 xG against Manchester United but failed to score on 1.13 xG against Tottenham, resulting in a disappointing total on both occasions.
Forest’s main goal scorers are all high-quality finishers, but they are unlikely to get many chances against the Premier League’s best defensive unit, and Liverpool would probably be content to keep this road match under control even if they only share the points.
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool prop bet
- Pick: Liverpool 17+ total shots
- Odds: -120 on FanDuel
This is a high bar to clear for a game that we expect to be quite defensive, but just because Liverpool intends to take some chances up front to impose their will on the title race does not mean they will profit from them.
Forest, in fact, are quite content to let their opponents take a lot of shots; Nuno welcomes it. This is because a shot frequently results in the end of an attacking possession, as long as the effort is not particularly dangerous.
This season, Forest has conceded 259 total shots, ranking eighth in the Premier League — not exactly what you’d expect from a team that has conceded the joint-second fewest goals.
That’s because they concede the fewest xG/shot of any team, 0.08, and have the second-lowest opponent on target percentage, 32%, trailing only Arsenal’s 31%.
If Forest can persuade Liverpool to take a number of low-value chances, it could play right into their hands, as it did earlier this season at Anfield, when the Reds took 14 shots worth only 0.91 xG, a paltry 0.065 xG per attempt.
