An asteroid up to 300 feet across could collide with Earth in 2032, and while NASA says the chances are “extremely low,” the likelihood has increased since the space rock was discovered weeks ago.
Last week, NASA announced that the asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, has a 2.3% (or 1 in 43) chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. While still small, the probability has nearly doubled since the agency’s initial estimate of 1.2% in late January.
At the time, NASA claimed that “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”
The agency is tracking the asteroid’s orbit and believes that the object’s “impact hazard” will be eliminated eventually. However, in a blog post about the space rock, the agency stated that it is “also possible its impact probability will continue to rise” as more information becomes available.
NASA estimates that the asteroid is between 130 and 300 feet across. According to the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, if the asteroid did hit Earth, it would most likely “impact at a high velocity” of approximately 38,000 mph.
A space rock that size would most likely cause local damage but would not pose a threat to the entire planet or humanity, as would a much larger asteroid colliding with Earth.
On December 27, 2024, the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System station in Chile detected the asteroid 2024 YR4. Since then, researchers have studied the space rock with ground-based telescopes.
NASA said the asteroid will be visible from ground-based observatories until April. Following that, the space rock will be too faint to see until approximately June 2028.
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will focus on the asteroid in March to better assess its size.
