President Donald Trump claimed there was “probable fraud” in the Social Security system during his speech to Congress Tuesday—after billionaire Elon Musk claimed without evidence the agency is a “Ponzi scheme”—which has sparked an outcry over the system’s future, despite Trump and Musk’s vow to leave people’s benefits alone.
Key Facts
- Trump claimed during his speech the Social Security system is subject to “shocking levels of incompetence and probable fraud”—which there is broadly no evidence to support—saying his administration was “searching right now” to investigate purported instances of the government making Social Security payments to dead Americans who are listed as being up to 160 years old.
- His comments come after Musk and Department Of Government Efficiency officials have reportedly attempted to access sensitive information at the Social Security Administration, multiple outlets report—part of DOGE’s broader efforts to investigate purported waste in federal agencies—which led the acting head of the SSA, Michelle King to resign in February, reportedly due to a clash with Musk.
- The SSA also announced Friday it planned to cut approximately 7,000 jobs from its workforce, which it said would focus on “functions and employees who do not directly provide mission critical services,” as well as reduce its current 10 regional offices down to four.
- Musk has repeatedly made public comments suggesting he believes there is widespread Social Security fraud, claiming on X the agency may have “the biggest fraud in history” and describing Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” in a recent interview with podcaster Joe Rogan.
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said Musk and the Trump administration would turn their focus to the SSA, saying on Fox News in February the president “has directed Elon Musk and the DOGE team to identify fraud at the Social Security Administration.”
- Musk and Trump have so far not suggested there will be any cuts to Americans’ Social Security benefits—which has been a delicate political issue—with Musk claiming the goal of him reviewing the SSA “is to stop the extreme levels of fraud taking place, so that it remains solvent and protects the social security checks of honest Americans!”
What To Watch For
It is unclear whether Musk and DOGE will make any changes to the SSA beyond the cuts announced Friday, as Musk has previously stated that he wants to root out fraud without proposing specific cuts or reforms.
While Trump has stated that his administration is investigating alleged fraud at the agency, it is unclear what additional changes DOGE or Trump may make and when they will be implemented, though cuts at this and other agencies suggest that reductions in the agency’s funding may be widespread.
Is There Widespread Social Security Fraud?
By all accounts, the answer is no—at least not on the scale that Musk and Trump claim. There is no concrete evidence of widespread fraud in the Social Security system. Errors and system abuse do occur, but data suggests they are uncommon.
The Inspector General’s office, which oversees the SSA, reported in August that the SSA made nearly $72 billion in improper payments between fiscal years 2015 and 2023—which, while significant, represents less than 1% of total Social Security benefits paid during that time period.
Chief Critic
Democrats have expressed concerns that Trump and Musk may try to cut Americans’ benefits despite their promises not to, with Rep. Sarah McBride, D-Del., telling CNN on Feb. 3 that the administration’s broad cuts to other areas of the federal government suggest “we cannot take them at their word when they say Social Security and Medicare are protected.”
Martin O’Malley, a Democrat who led the SSA during the Biden administration, also issued a dire warning about the impact of DOGE’s cuts to the agency, which he predicted would result in staff shortages and IT system outages that could disrupt Americans’ benefits.
“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley told CNBC on Saturday, projecting that this would occur “within the next 30 to 90 days.” “People should start saving now,” O’Malley advised.
Is The Federal Government Paying Social Security Benefits To Dead Americans?
The most serious fraud claim Musk and Trump have made is that the government is making Social Security payments to the deceased.
Leavitt claims “tens of millions” of people are receiving fraudulent payments, and Trump stated during his speech on Tuesday that there are approximately 16 million people in the Social Security database who are between the ages of 100 and 159.
There is no evidence to support fraud on that scale—which would account for a significant portion of the 73 million Americans who receive benefits in total—but the inspector general has discovered that the agency has made improper payments to deceased people on a much smaller scale.
Musk and Trump have claimed that the government pays benefits to people who are 150 years old, but experts have suggested that this is not the case and may be a result of the SSA’s computer systems’ dated programming language.
According to Wired, if an American’s birth date is missing or incomplete, the system will default to saying they were born in 1875, causing them to be incorrectly listed as 150 years old.
The IG’s office has also stated that tens of millions of people over the age of 100 are incorrectly listed in the SSA database—but it’s unclear how many actually received payments.
The Social Security Administration has stated that it automatically terminates Social Security payments for any beneficiary over the age of 115 in order to identify deceased individuals.
Will Trump Or Musk Cut Social Security?
Trump has stated that he does not intend to cut Social Security, which is considered a third rail in American politics due to its popularity.
During the election, Trump sparked outrage by suggesting that he could cut Social Security and Medicare, telling CNBC in March, “There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting, but also in terms of theft and bad management of entitlements.”
The Trump campaign insisted Trump was not attempting to suggest he wanted to cut entitlements, with Leavitt—then his campaign spokesperson—stating that Trump “will continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term.”
Will Trump Eliminate Taxes On Social Security?
During his speech to Congress, Trump reiterated his proposal to eliminate income taxes on Social Security payments, which he first proposed during the campaign but has yet to take action on. However, experts criticized his proposal during the election, claiming that it would quickly render Social Security insolvent.
While Social Security is already expected to run out of money by 2034 at its current rate, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that exempting taxes on benefits would result in Social Security and Medicare receiving $1.6 trillion less in revenue between 2026 and 2035 than if the current rules were maintained, causing Social Security to become insolvent in 2032.
What Information Could Doge Access?
It’s unclear what data Musk’s team is attempting to access or why, but Nancy Altman, president of the left-leaning advocacy group Social Security Works, told The Washington Post that the agency has private information on millions of Americans, including Social Security numbers, medical information for those receiving disability benefits, employment records, bank records, and more.
According to CNN, the “SSA has data on everyone who has a Social Security number, which is virtually all Americans, everyone who has Medicare, and every low-income American who has applied for Social Security’s means-tested companion program, Supplemental Security Income.” Altman said there is “no way to overstate how serious” a “breach” of Social Security’s systems by DOGE
“If there is an evil intent to punish perceived enemies, someone could erase your earnings record, making it impossible to collect the Social Security and Medicare benefits you have earned,” Altman says. There is currently no evidence of DOGE mishandling data, and Musk has stated that he has no intention of using Americans’ personal information at all.
Musk responded to concerns about his access to Americans’ data on Monday by referencing his previous work for payment company Paypal. He wrote, “Bruh, if I wanted to rummage through random personal s—t, I could have done so on PAYPAL. Hello???”
Surprising Fact
Another explanation for Musk’s fraud claims is that undocumented immigrants pay into Social Security by taking over the numbers of people who have since died, according to Alex Nowratesh, a libertarian Cato Institute expert.
The SSA’s inspector general reported in 2015 that between fiscal years 2008 and 2011, employers conducted over 4,000 E-Verify checks on employees with Social Security numbers that belonged to someone born before 1901.
Trump’s mass deportations may also harm Social Security’s financial future, as undocumented immigrants contribute to the system through taxes but do not receive benefits.
The Social Security Administration’s chief actuary estimated in 2013 that undocumented immigrants contributed $12 billion to Social Security in 2010, and CFRB estimated that Trump’s deportation plans and proposed tariffs would cost Social Security $300 billion to $750 billion between 2026 and 2035.
Who’s Running The Social Security Administration Now?
Following King’s resignation, Trump appointed Leland Dudek to run the SSA on an acting basis until Fiserv CEO Frank Bisignano, whom Trump has nominated to lead the agency permanently, is confirmed by the Senate.
Dudek previously ran Social Security’s anti-fraud office, and according to The Post, he has previously praised DOGE’s efforts. Trump’s appointment of Dudek to lead the SSA temporarily, rather than one of the many higher-ranking career officials who have long worked there, has raised concerns at the agency, according to The Post, citing anonymous sources.
“To pick an acting commissioner who is not in the senior executive service sends a message that professional people should leave that beleaguered public agency,” Martin O’Malley, a Democrat who was Social Security Commissioner under Biden, told The Post. Musk and DOGE’s intrusion “will break it fast, and there will be an interruption of benefits.”
Key Background
DOGE’s reported involvement in Social Security comes after the Musk-led group, which is dedicated to rooting out alleged federal waste, has already sparked widespread outrage for making cuts across the federal government, including canceling federal spending and firing large numbers of federal employees.
DOGE has also faced criticism and legal action for accessing sensitive information at other federal agencies, including the Departments of Treasury, Labor, and Education.
As litigation over officials’ access continues, a federal judge has blocked DOGE from accessing Treasury and Education Department data, but other judges have been unwilling to issue immediate orders barring DOGE officials from information at the Labor Departments and have declined to halt the group’s work more broadly.
Musk and DOGE were also responsible for the widespread dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development, and they have targeted other federal agencies, including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
